This text is a part of a sequence that gives an ongoing evaluation of the modifications made to John Paulson’s 13F inventory portfolio on a quarterly foundation. It’s primarily based on Paulson’s regulatory 13F Type filed on 5/15/2023. Please go to our Monitoring John Paulson’s Paulson & Firm Portfolio sequence to get an concept of his funding philosophy and our earlier replace for the fund’s strikes throughout This autumn 2022.
This quarter, Paulson’s 13F portfolio worth elevated ~8% from ~$1.11B to ~$1.20B. There are 20 13F securities within the portfolio though solely 17 of them are considerably giant fairness holdings (greater than 0.5% of the 13F portfolio). The article is concentrated on the bigger holdings. The highest 5 positions are Bausch Well being, Brightsphere Funding Group, NovaGold, Perpetua Assets, and Horizon Therapeutics. They add as much as ~65% of the portfolio.
John Paulson is finest recognized for his extremely leveraged bets in opposition to the real-estate bubble that netted him billions within the aftermath. To study extra about that, check-out the e book “The Biggest Commerce Ever”. In July 2020, Paulson introduced that they’re returning all outdoors cash and are changing to a Household Workplace construction.
Observe 1: In August 2021, Paulson known as a bubble in crypto (OTC:GBTC) (OTCQX:ETHE) saying “I’d describe cryptocurrencies as a restricted provide of nothing.” However he’s not shorting crypto due to its volatility.
Observe 2: Paulson & Firm is thought to have an enormous place in Fannie/Freddie (OTCQB:FNMA) (OTCQB:FMCC) though the main points haven’t been disclosed.
Kraneshares CSI China Web (KWEB): KWEB was a 6.34% of the portfolio place primarily in-built Q1 2022 at costs between ~$21 and ~$39. There was a ~27% promoting throughout Q3 2022 at costs between ~$25 and ~$33. The disposal this quarter was at costs between ~$28 and ~$36. The inventory at present trades at $27.84.
Abroad Shipholding Group (OSG): The very small 0.73% stake in OSG was disposed through the quarter.
Stake Will increase:
AngloGold Ashanti (AU): AU is a 7.71% place. It’s a long-term stake that has been within the portfolio since 2009. This autumn 2015 had seen a ~9% trimming whereas the next quarter noticed a one-third discount at costs between $7 and $14. Q2 2016 noticed one other ~20% discount at costs between $13 and $18. H1 2020 had seen a ~45% discount at costs between $14 and $30. That was adopted with a ~14% promoting in This autumn 2020. Q3 2022 noticed one other one-third promoting at costs between ~$12 and ~$16. That was adopted with an ~80% discount final quarter at costs between ~$12.25 and ~$19.75. The stake was rebuilt this quarter at costs between ~$17 and ~$24. The inventory is at present at $23.19.
Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP): HZNP is now at ~9% of the portfolio. It was bought in Q2 2017 at costs between $9.65 and $15.75 and elevated by ~40% in This autumn 2017 at costs between $13 and $15. There was a ~23% stake enhance in Q3 2019 at costs between $23 and $28. Q2 2020 noticed a ~16% promoting at costs between $30 and $57 whereas in This autumn 2020 there was a ~20% stake enhance at costs between ~$67 and ~$84. Q3 2021 noticed a ~23% discount at costs between ~$92 and ~$110. Final quarter noticed one other ~75% promoting at costs between ~$61.60 and ~$114. That was adopted by a one-third discount this quarter at costs between ~$107 and ~$114. The inventory is now at ~$101.
Observe: Amgen (AMGN) is buying Horizon Therapeutics in a $116.50 all-cash deal introduced final December. FTC has sued to dam the deal.
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM): The three.32% AEM place took place because of Agnico’s acquisition of Kirkland Lake Gold in an all-stock deal (0.7935 shares of AEM for every share held) that closed final January. Paulson & Firm had a 1.303M share stake in Kirkland Lake Gold for which they acquired these shares. There was a ~270% stake enhance final quarter at costs between ~$40 and ~$53.50. This quarter noticed a ~80% discount at costs between ~$45 and ~$58. AEM at present trades at $48.73.
Bausch Well being Firms (BHC) beforehand Valeant Prescription drugs: BHC place was elevated by nearly 300% in Q1 2015 at costs between $143 and $205 and one other ~340% the next quarter at costs between $197 and $242. This autumn 2015 additionally noticed a ~50% enhance at costs between $70 and $182. The aggressive shopping for in opposition to falling costs continued in Q2 2016: ~44% enhance at costs between $19 and $36. Q2 2020 noticed one other ~25% stake enhance at ~$16.50 per share. The inventory at present trades at $7.40, and the stake is now the biggest place within the portfolio at ~18%.
BrightSphere Funding Group (BSIG): BSIG is at present the second largest 13F stake at 17.55% of the portfolio. It was in-built This autumn 2018 at costs between $10 and $13.30. Q1 2019 noticed an enormous ~285% stake enhance at costs between $11 and $14.25. There was a ~55% discount in This autumn 2021 at ~$31.50 per share as they participated in a fixed-tender-offer by the corporate. The inventory at present trades at $21.75.
Observe: Paulson’s possession stake in BSIG is ~20%.
NovaGold Assets (NG): NG is a big (prime three) 11.49% of the portfolio long-term stake established in 2010. Q2 2016 noticed a ~28% discount at costs between $5 and $6.50 and that was adopted with a ~13% promoting in This autumn 2016. Q1 2020 noticed a ~15% stake enhance at costs between $5.87 and $9.51 whereas the following quarter noticed a ~12% trimming at costs between $7.40 and $12. The inventory is at present at $4.85.
Observe: Paulson has a excessive cost-basis on NG and controls ~7% of the enterprise.
Perpetua Assets (PPTA): The ~4% PPTA stake was bought in This autumn 2020 at costs between ~$6 and ~$11 and the inventory at present trades nicely beneath that vary at $3.81. There was a ~18% stake enhance in Q3 2021 at costs between ~$4.75 and ~$7.70.
Observe: Paulson & Firm has a one-third possession stake within the enterprise.
Thryv Holdings (THRY) beforehand Dex Media: The three.83% THRY stake was established in This autumn 2020 at costs between ~$8 and ~$14. Q1 2021 noticed a ~12% trimming at $27 per share. Subsequent two quarters noticed one other ~25% promoting at costs between ~$27 and ~$41.50. The inventory at present trades at $25.67. There was a minor ~7% trimming final quarter.
Observe: Paulson & Firm has a 5.8% possession stake within the enterprise.
Worldwide Tower Hill Mines (THM): THM is a ~3% of the portfolio stake established within the 2013-2015 timeframe at a really low cost-basis. This autumn 2020 additionally noticed the acquisition of round 2.34M shares at ~$1.40. The inventory is now at $0.42.
Observe: Paulson has a ~32% possession stake in Worldwide Tower Hill Mines.
SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM): The two.51% of the portfolio stake in SSRM noticed a ~140% stake enhance in This autumn 2021 at costs between ~$14.50 and ~$20. There was a ~35% promoting final quarter at costs between ~$13 and ~$16.35. The inventory at present trades at $14.04.
Seabridge Gold (SA): The two.23% SA place noticed a ~125% enhance in This autumn 2020 at costs between ~$17 and ~$21. There was a roughly one-third enhance in Q2 2021 at costs between ~$16.15 and ~$19.75. It at present trades at $12.25.
Bally’s Company (BALY), Equinox Gold (EQX), Newmark Group (NMRK), Tellurian Inc. (TELL), and Trilogy Metals (TMQ): These very small (lower than ~1.5% of the portfolio every) positions have been saved regular this quarter.
The spreadsheet beneath highlights modifications to Paulson’s US inventory holdings in Q1 2023:
Supply: John Vincent. Knowledge constructed from Paulson & Firm’s 13F filings for This autumn 2022 and Q1 2023.
Editor’s Observe: This text discusses a number of securities that don’t commerce on a significant U.S. alternate. Please pay attention to the dangers related to these shares.