Trinity Capital: What Is Bad For Banks Is Good For (Some) BDCs (NASDAQ:TRIN)

Whereas discuss of inflation, rising rates of interest, impending recession, and financial institution failures have dominated headlines within the first half of 2023, long-term traders with a concentrate on earnings together with potential capital appreciation are specializing in alternatives within the BDC (enterprise improvement firm) sector. There have been quite a few current articles explaining why BDCs are good investments proper now. For instance, BDCs that put money into senior secured loans have the finest seat in the home throughout a recession, and are higher positioned than banks in lots of circumstances. Some BDCs are priced properly with yields surpassing 11% or extra, and since they’ve been impacted by weak point within the banking sector, there are some good alternatives to put money into them now. After the current failure of Silicon Valley Financial institution (OTC:SIVBQ), extra corporations are turning to BDCs like Trinity Capital (NASDAQ:TRIN) for financing senior secured debt.

Trinity Capital is a comparatively new BDC that did an IPO in 2019 and regardless of the challenges of Covid and post-pandemic inflation, provide chain shortages, a struggle and rising rates of interest, they’ve managed to generate a rising distribution. From the corporate web site, that is their Company Profile:

Trinity, an internally managed specialty lending firm that has elected to be regulated as a BDC beneath the Funding Firm Act of 1940, is a number one supplier of debt and tools financing to development stage corporations, together with venture-backed corporations and corporations with institutional fairness traders. Trinity’s funding goal is to generate present earnings and, to a lesser extent, capital appreciation via investments consisting primarily of time period debt and tools financings and, to a lesser extent, working capital loans, fairness and equity-related investments. Trinity believes it’s one in every of solely a choose group of specialty lenders that has the depth of information, expertise, and monitor document in lending to development stage corporations.

Apart from TRIN, there are different BDCs that stand to learn from the shift away from financial institution lending, particularly for enterprise capital and development stage funding alternatives. For instance, I not too long ago wrote an replace on my protection of CION Funding Corp. (CION). CION invests primarily within the debt of personal and center market corporations and likewise stands to learn from the transition away from banks.

One other standard BDC that makes a speciality of enterprise capital and development financing is Hercules Capital (HTGC). HTGC hit a 52-week excessive of $16.20 in mid-February after which dropped all the best way to under $12 a month later. The share value has since recovered a bit and the inventory value has risen after a robust Q1 earnings report. Like TRIN, HTGC has additionally benefitted from the shift in direction of BDCs for enterprise stage and development capital.

Additionally, just like TRIN, Hercules is internally managed, pays a quarterly dividend that yields greater than 11% yearly, and will get largely Purchase and Robust Purchase scores. Not like TRIN, HTGC trades at a premium to e book worth, even after the large drop in value that occurred in March.

Whereas many traders like HTGC’s monitor document and the corporate’s prospects for continued capital appreciation in addition to a excessive yield distribution that features one other particular distribution this quarter, there are some causes to love TRIN simply as a lot, if no more. As indicated above, TRIN is internally managed (like HTGC), so they don’t pay exorbitant administration charges to an exterior entity. And whereas HTGC trades at a premium, TRIN trades at a considerable low cost to NAV, though the NAV did decline barely in Q1. Based on the Q1 press launch, NAV declined from $13.15 to $13.07 primarily resulting from extra shares issued via restricted inventory awards. Relating to investor issues about declining NAV within the BDC sector, the corporate CEO, Steve Brown addressed this subject through the earnings name:

We now have not too long ago heard issues over NAV decline within the BDC house. In 2022, just like our BDC friends, we skilled a decline in NAV because of the unrealized losses attributed to a number of rate of interest adjustments, market volatility, and a few particular valuation changes. Moreover, we had an uncommon occasion in Q1, through which we transformed a previous yr unrealized appreciation on two public firm investments right into a historic $50 million web realized achieve that resulted in a decline in NAV of roughly $0.67 per share due to that flip. I additionally wish to remind our traders that $0.60 of the NAV decline in 2022 was associated to the particular dividends we paid to our shareholders. We now have begun, and we imagine we are going to proceed to develop our NAV within the long-term.

TRIN pays a a lot larger dividend yield than HTGC and that quarterly dividend has now been raised for 9 consecutive quarters and at the moment yields about 15%. TRIN additionally paid a particular distribution every quarter in 2022 as proven on the corporate’s distribution historical past web page.

The connection between TRIN and SVB is exclusive within the business and the result of the SVB financial institution failure might have a extra lasting optimistic influence on TRIN than it might need on different BDCs resembling HTGC. Actually, through the Q123 earnings name that matter was addressed through the Q&A session on the finish of the decision. This query from Ryan Lynch of KBW summed up what was on many individuals’s minds:

First query I had was simply regarding the general fundraising surroundings. It seems like your general portfolio was fairly lively and had a reasonably wholesome degree of fundraising into Q1, which was simply optimistic and goes sort of countertrend to I feel what we’re broadly seeing in VC funding and broader VC fundraising. I am simply curious although, have you ever seen any noticeable change within the surroundings on your portfolio of corporations elevating capital submit the SVB collapse and clearly, that was a fairly large second for the market. And I wished to know if VC traders’ sentiment had modified and their willingness to help corporations broadly when you’ve seen any adjustments submit SVB.

The corporate President and Chief Funding Officer, Kyle Brown had this to say in response:

The reply isn’t any. We have not seen any vital adjustments aside from what we have acknowledged, which is there’s excessive stress on valuation. There’s some huge cash on the sidelines. It needs to enter, but it surely needs to enter on the proper value. And so there’s this steadiness proper now. You have got corporations delaying as finest they’ll to extend their valuation previous to taking ache within the type of a dilutive down spherical. And you’ve got capital that’s being affected person that wishes to deploy however won’t do it except they make the best investments. I imply simply — simply as I feel that we’re able proper now of getting unbelievable alternative, we’d like to verify we make the best investments. I feel the equities have — they’ve that very same mindset. They’ll be judged on a few of the investments they make on a go-forward foundation.

And so the SVB and the banking volatility have proven us that — and I feel the numbers communicate to it, that these banks, even SVB who owned 50-plus p.c of the market share, they didn’t have a major quantity of time period loans, what we do, proper, and a few of our friends do. That they had $1 billion-ish time period senior secured time period loans on the market. For that kind of market share, that is comparatively low.

In additional questions relating to the failure of SVB and the longstanding relationship that Trinity had with the financial institution as a lending companion, CEO Kyle Brown indicated that the corporate is in talks with a number of former financial institution workers who’re more likely to be part of TRIN as new hires. He sees that as one other alternative to learn from the financial institution’s misfortune.

Q123 Outcomes and Outlook

Diving deeper into the Q1 outcomes for TRIN, the corporate reported complete funding earnings of $41.5 million, a 30.5% YOY enhance. NII of $19.3 million works out to $0.55 per share, a YOY enhance of 23.7%. Web will increase in web property ensuing from operations equaled $22.5 million, or $0.64 per share. A dividend of $0.47 was declared, which represents a slight enhance of two.2% in comparison with Q422. Whole gross investments funded through the quarter amounted to $70.4 million, together with $5.2 million into the not too long ago shaped three way partnership. Debt principal repayments of $82.8 million included $13.1 million from early repayments and $42.1 million of property offered to the JV.

Summarizing the Q1 outcomes, Kyle Brown once more talked about the adjustments in financial institution financing and the way that’s positively impacting TRIN:

Trinity is nicely positioned given current volatility within the banking business, which has basically modified the market. Companies are in search of extra secure, non-bank options for his or her financing wants and we intend to capitalize on this chance with a mixture of on- and off-balance sheet options. Our core priorities of portfolio administration and credit score high quality stay firmly rooted in our working course of. We proceed to trace markets and preserve fixed oversight and communication with our portfolio corporations as they navigate the present financial surroundings. Trinity continues to understand its imaginative and prescient as an rising chief, offering diversified monetary options to the worldwide development financial system.”

Though HTGC has outperformed TRIN over the previous 1-year interval, the YTD efficiency is barely higher for TRIN even with the current drop in value for each.

HTGC seems to be catching up by way of YTD complete return and is far greater than TRIN with a market cap of about $1.8B. The present market cap for TRIN is about $443M and so they have about $175 million in out there liquidity. The slide under from the Q123 earnings presentation sums up the main points.

On the finish of Q1 the variety of loans on non-accrual remained unchanged at 4.5% of complete portfolio debt and a pair of.3% as share of honest worth. There was a $6 million adjustment to honest worth based mostly on Core Scientific benefiting from improved underlying market situations. The corporate completed the quarter with $339 million in unfunded commitments, and signed time period sheets for $312 million.

The debt portfolio is nicely positioned with about 70% of debt investments at floating charges whereas about 30% on the borrowing facet is at a variable SOFR fee contributing to a web curiosity margin of 11%.

In summing up the primary quarter efficiency, Chairman and CEO Steve Brown indicated that the corporate had spillover earnings of $1.64 at 2022 year-end that they’ll nonetheless make investments. One chance for that funding is the potential for particular dividends to be paid in 2023.

Now I might like to show to some key highlights from our first quarter efficiency. Q1 web funding earnings was $19 million or NII per share of $0.55, offering 117% protection on our core dividend. Significant undistributed NII as of Q1 shall be reinvested into our enterprise, each supporting our present portfolio corporations and used to fund new commitments. We elevated our quarterly dividend by over 2% to $0.47 per share, marking the ninth consecutive quarter that now we have elevated our dividend. I’d additionally prefer to remind our shareholders that we had spillover earnings of roughly $1.64 per share at year-end that we’ll proceed to reinvest. Administration is diligently evaluating our liquidity place on this market and recurrently discusses the assorted makes use of of our capital with our Board, together with the potential of particular dividends in 2023. Nonetheless, our Board has not made any affirmative selections on the particular dividend at the moment.

Dangers and Abstract

BDCs are topic to market threat and recession threat like different shares within the monetary business. If the financial system does proceed to sluggish and the Fed is unable to tame inflation with rising rates of interest, the spiral of declining spending and a looming recession might trigger some corporations to place the brakes on enterprise capital and different types of development financing. If that have been to occur, TRIN and different BDCs like HTGC are more likely to endure.

Likewise, there shall be rising competitors from different non-bank lenders resembling HTGC. Nonetheless, I imagine that based mostly on the stories from different BDCs and the feedback and solutions to questions within the TRIN Q1 report, there may be loads of money sitting on the sidelines ready for the best alternative to benefit from the decline in financial institution lending. Maybe decrease charges shall be required to seize a few of that enterprise, which might have an effect on future NII and result in a slowdown in development. However that isn’t what the present indications present.

Each HTGC and TRIN seem like taking benefit of the present alternatives in non-bank lender financing for enterprise capital and development stage corporations, and I really feel that each must be in your watch listing. I particularly like TRIN and fee it a Purchase at a value under $12 because of the spillover earnings that’s but to be invested, the low cost to NAV, and the rising distribution that continues to be nicely lined. I additionally like HTGC however am extra cautious on shopping for it whereas the value nonetheless instructions a premium above NAV. With an extended historical past and greater measurement, HTGC gives a decrease yield distribution but in addition could also be much less dangerous than TRIN. An funding in a single or each depends upon your threat tolerance and funding aims. Each of those BDCs provide traders a compelling alternative to generate long-term complete returns which are engaging at present costs.